Members tips for Friday 19 November.
Important Information
Bet Size & Bankroll.
My tips come with specific staking and bankroll advice, it’s your money and it is up to you how you bet it but I strongly suggest taking 5 minutes to check out the Using Your Membership Page to get familiar with the Staking and Bankroll Strategy before using the tips for the first time
Daily Expectations.
Important to note, last season we made 386.14 Units Profit, we profited on 104 of 191 betting days, winning 1 of every 5.9 bets placed over the full season. Making sure you have the bankroll to come back and bet as many days as possible is the best way to profit when betting longer odds Same Game Multis like this.
Thank you, Member!
Thanks very much for being a Member, remember you can reach out to me or the team and someone will always be there to answer your question big or small. - Tala
Today’s Bets: Part 2
Optional Super Action
All results count towards our final performance statistics.
Dejounte Murray v MIN
Stake: 0.5 Units
Minimum Acceptable Odds: $18.00
Best Bookmaker: Bet365.
Other Bookmakers: Most Books.
My Thoughts:
The 20 Point Triple Double, 2 already this season. Can he make it 3 today? It is a value bet for sure.
Jokic x Murray
Stake: 0.5 Units
Minimum Acceptable Odds: $100.00
Best Bookmaker: Sportsbet.
Other Bookmakers: Most Books.
My Thoughts:
We are just coming 2 bets we love today for extra value, we know there is a smaller chance to hit it but a bigger slice of value, so when we hit a few of these a season, it can really add up for us.
The Fundamentals
Nikola Jokic v PHI
Stake: 2 Units
Minimum Acceptable Odds: $5.00
Best Bookmaker: Sportsbet.
Other Bookmakers: None Preferred,
My Thoughts:
Jokic is averaging 26.1ppg 13.8rpg 6.3apg. He's hit this line 3 games this season including 3 of his last 5 and has hit the line 28% of games in the past 2 seasons. Today he faces a matchup against the 76ers who have been great defensively this season. Although they will be without Joel Embiid which is a huge out. Joker could well score plenty but he's 10 and 3 to the under 28.5 points line this season and we'll play at the odds here. Go Joker 🔥🔥🔥
Pascal Siakam v UTA
Stake: 1 Units
Minimum Acceptable Odds: $10
Best Bookmaker: Sportsbet.
Other Bookmakers: None Preferred,
My Thoughts:
He's averaging 17ppg 7.3rpg 4.3apg. He's hit this line in 1 games this season and has only played in 4 games. He did play 39 minutes last game out which is a good sign. He's hit this line in about 15% of the games he's played over the past 2 seasons. However he's really enjoyed his matchups with the Jazz hitting this line in 3 of 4 contests including 1 in Utah he's averaging 26ppg 7rpg 5.4apg against the Jazz in his last 4 games vs them. Go Spicy P 🌶🌶🌶🌶
Today’s Bets
Bradley Beal v MIA
Stake: 1.5 Units
Minimum Acceptable Odds: $7.00
Best Bookmaker: Sportsbet.
Other Bookmakers: None Preferred,
My Thoughts:
Bradley Beal has hit this line in 2 games this season. He's hit this line 1 game in his last 5 and is averaging 23.4ppg 5.3rpg 5.7apg on the season. His start to the season was rough shooting wise but when I look at his shooting splits over his last 5 games he's at 46/37/94 all at or above career averages. I think he could be getting back to his season as the season progresses. This is also a line Beal was hitting in about 19% of games over the 2 seasons before Westbrook came to town. When I add those factors together I think this bet is somewhere in a 15% - 20% range of probability to hit so if we're getting $8.25 that's great. For their part the Heat have been great defensively overall but a little lacking when defending the Shooting Guard position. Go Bradley Beal 🔥🔥🔥
Draymond Green v CLE
Stake: 2.5 Units
Minimum Acceptable Odds: $3.50
Best Bookmaker: Pointsbet.
Other Bookmakers: Most Books,
My Thoughts:
Draymond is averaging 8.4ppg 7.9rpg 7.1apg this season he's hit this line in 8 games so far this year and 3 games in his last 5. At the odds it's a great play and we're betting with a strong recent trend. A couple of key dangers here. 1 Draymond isn't taking a tonne of shots 6FGA average over the season we'll need him to make the most of them. 2 the Cavaliers have injury problems and if the Golden State Warriors get it going this one could be a blowout. If that's the case hopefully Draymond gets his work done early. Go Draymond 🔥🔥🔥
Dejoune Murray v MIN
Stake: 2.5 Units
Minimum Acceptable Odds: $3.75
Best Bookmaker: Sportsbet.
Other Bookmakers: Most Books.
My Thoughts:
Dejounte is averaging 18.9ppg 8.1rpg 8.1apg. He's hit this line in 7 games this season and 3 games in his last 5. For their part the Timberwolves are top 10 in the league in pace and about average defensively, they have been playing good Point Guard defense that said De'Aaron Fox dropped 28 on them yesterday and now they're on the second half of a back to back. I still think it's a great bet considering how well Dejounte has been playing this season. Go Dejounte 🔥🔥🔥
Anthony Edwards v SAS
Stake: 2 Units
Minimum Acceptable Odds: $4.50
Best Bookmaker: Sportsbet.
Other Bookmakers: None Preferred.
My Thoughts:
We're running it back with Anthony today. He's hit this line 6 games this season including yesterday against the Kings. He's hit it in about 24% of games since the ASG last season when he started breaking out and took on a big role for the team. Today he faces a Spurs team who have been great defensively vs the Small Forward position where Anthony plays a lot of his minutes backing Anthony to be good enough to get it done. Go Ant-Man 🔥🔥🔥
Ja Morant v LAC
Stake: 2.5 Units
Minimum Acceptable Odds: $3.75
Best Bookmaker: Sportsbet.
Other Bookmakers: None Preferred.
My Thoughts:
Ja is averaging 25.9ppg 6.4rpg 7.3apg. He's hit this line in 6 games this season including in 2 of his last 5 games. Today he faces a Clippers team who are ranked 6th in Pace and 2nd in Drtg. They are however giving up plenty of points and assists to Point Guards and couldn't control Dejounte Murray. Ja profiles similarly to Dejounte except quicker and more athletic. A key danger could be rebounding but is 11 and 3 to the under 7.5 rebounds. Go Ja 🔥🔥🔥
