Members tips for Thursday 18 November.
Important Information
Bet Size & Bankroll.
My tips come with specific staking and bankroll advice, it’s your money and it is up to you how you bet it but I strongly suggest taking 5 minutes to check out the Using Your Membership Page to get familiar with the Staking and Bankroll Strategy before using the tips for the first time
Daily Expectations.
Important to note, last season we made 386.14 Units Profit, we profited on 104 of 191 betting days, winning 1 of every 5.9 bets placed over the full season. Making sure you have the bankroll to come back and bet as many days as possible is the best way to profit when betting longer odds Same Game Multis like this.
Thank you, Member!
Thanks very much for being a Member, remember you can reach out to me or the team and someone will always be there to answer your question big or small. - Tala
Today’s Bets: Part 3
Chris Paul v DAL
Stake: 1.5 Units
Minimum Acceptable Odds: $5.50
Best Bookmaker: Sportsbet.
Other Bookmakers: None Preferred,
My Thoughts:
CP3 has hit this line in 5 games this season including once in his last 5 games. CP3 is hitting this line in 21% of games since last season. The opposition today is the Dallas Mavericks who're playing without Luka Doncic the Suns start as -8.5 point favourites. The Mavericks are giving up plenty of assists to Point Guards but not as many points. Another factor I like about this bet what I've noticed is generally CP3 has been trying to get other guys going early and if the game is close had started shooting more down the stretch in what could be a little bit of a mismatch I like that factor. Go CP3 🔥🔥🔥
Zach LaVine v POR
Stake: 2 Units
Minimum Acceptable Odds: $3.50
Best Bookmaker: Sportsbet.
Other Bookmakers: Most Books excluding Pointsbet.
My Thoughts:
Zach has hit this line in 2 games this season and 26% of games the past 2 seasons. The reason I like this bet today is over the last 3 games Zach is averaging 22FGA and 10 3PA per game since Vucevic has been out of the lineup. With that sort of opportunity I like Zachs chances against a bottom 10 ranked defense like Portland. Go Zach 🔥🔥🔥
Today’s Bets: Part 2
Anthony Edwards v SAC
Stake: 2 Units
Minimum Acceptable Odds: $4.00
Best Bookmaker: Sportsbet.
Other Bookmakers: None Preferred.
My Thoughts:
He's hit this line 5 games this season including 1 game in his last 5. Today facing the Sacramento Kings who are top 10 in the league in PACE and giving up plenty of points and 3s to Shooting Guards. I see it as a nice spot for Anthony to score. The assists could be dicey but he is 9 and 4 to the under 3.5 and over 2.5 wasn't available hence we play here on the under in a spot where I like him to put up points. Go Anthony 🔥🔥🔥
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander v HOU
Stake: 1.5 Units
Minimum Acceptable Odds: $5.00
Best Bookmaker: Sportsbet.
Other Bookmakers: None Preferred.
My Thoughts:
SGA has hit this line in 3 games this season. And about 25% of games over the past 2 seasons. He's been quiet recently in terms of his scoring over the past 5 games but has a nice opportunity to get on track here against a Rockets team who rank first in the league in PACE. The Rockets are first in the league in turnovers at 19.1 per game. Which is an astronomical figure not sure if it lasts season long but they're a very young team and it's very hard to defend after live ball turnovers. The Rockets are ranked bottom 10 in the league in defense. Although SGA has been quiet of late I see this as a great spot for him to get it going offensively. Go SGA 🔥🔥🔥
Today’s Bets
Domantas Sabonis v DET
Stake: 3 Units
Minimum Acceptable Odds: $2.30
Best Bookmaker: Sportsbet.
Other Bookmakers: None Preferred.
My Thoughts:
Domantas has hit this line in 8 games this season and 4 out of his last 5. Over the past 2 seasons he's hit it in 53% of games. Today the Pacers face the Pistons who shooting a league worst 40.7% from the field and are missing 52 field goals per game. That's a lot of rebounds available and Domantas is a good rebounder. The Pacers are -6.5 favourites here today and I hope the Pistons can keep the game close enough where Domas gets a good run at these stat's. Go Domas 🔥🔥🔥
Malcolm Brogdon v DET
Stake: 1.5 Units
Minimum Acceptable Odds: $4.00
Best Bookmaker: Sportsbet.
Other Bookmakers: None Preferred.
My Thoughts:
Malcolm has hit this line in 4 games this season and 1 in his last 5. He's hitting this line about 28% of games the past 2 seasons. Looking for Malcolm to have a good game against a Pistons squad who are giving up tonnes of Points and Assists to the Point Guard and Shooting Guard positions. Go Malcolm 🔥🔥🔥
Sabonis x Brogdon Combo SGM v DET
Stake: 1 Units
Minimum Acceptable Odds: $10.00
Best Bookmaker: Sportsbet.
Other Bookmakers: None Preferred.
My Thoughts:
They've combined to hit these marks in 2 games this season and about 16% of games the past 2 seasons they've played together. Looking for the big man to clean the glass and the Brogdon to get it going offensively. Go Pacers 🔥🔥🔥
Kyle Kuzma v CHO
Stake: 2 Units
Minimum Acceptable Odds: $4.50
Best Bookmaker: Sportsbet.
Other Bookmakers: None Preferred.
My Thoughts:
Kyle Kuzma has hit this line in 6 games this season including 2 in his last 5. He is 10 and 3 to the under 2.5 assist mark. Today he faces a Charlotte Hornets team that are ranked 3rd in Pace and 25th in Drtg, they've also been giving up plenty of points to the Power Forward position. A nice mix for some scoring for Kyle. Go Kuz 🔥🔥🔥
Trae Young v BOS
Stake: 2 Units
Minimum Acceptable Odds: $4.75
Best Bookmaker: Sportsbet.
Other Bookmakers: None Preferred.
My Thoughts:
Trae has hit this line in 4 games this season including 2 in his last 5 games. He's hit this line in about 19% of games over the past 2 seasons but hit it in 3 of 3 vs the Celtics last year and averaged 34.6ppg in the matchup. The Celtics are above average defensively thus far this year and are OK against Point Guards. A reason I think Trae is in a good spot here is the Celtics have been playing alot of switching defense when they're in man to man. We saw what Trae Young did to Bobby Portis in the First half of the Bucks vs Hawks if Trae Young sees a lot of Al Horford and Robert Williams in switched I think he's in for a big game. Go Trae, ice Trae 🧊🧊🧊
Jonas Valanciunas v MIA
Stake: 2 Units
Minimum Acceptable Odds: $3.5
Best Bookmaker: Sportsbet.
Other Bookmakers: TAB, Ladbrokes & Pointsbet.
My Thoughts:
Jonas has hit this line 8 games and 2 of his past 5 games. He's up against a very tough Miami Heat defense today but he's posted 20+ point games vs them in 2 of his last 4 contests (Bam Adebayo played in both 20+ games and is his likely matchup). Go JV 🔥🔥🔥
Julius Randle v ORL
Stake: 1.5 Units
Minimum Acceptable Odds: $6.00
Best Bookmaker: Pointsbet.
Other Bookmakers: Most Books.
Thoughts:
Julius has hit this 2/3 times against the Magic and hit it 4 times already this season, it is a Julius play we love to see when we get the odds like this. Lets Go J!
Giannis Antetokounmpo v LAL
Stake: 1.5 Units
Minimum Acceptable Odds: $5.00
Best Bookmaker: Sportsbet.
Other Bookmakers: None Preferred.
My Thoughts:
Giannis has hit this line in 4 games this season including 1 in his last 5. He's hit this line in about 25% of games over the past 2 seasons and I think this represents some value here. For their part the Lakers are 2nd in Pace and close to league average defensively. They do have one elite defender on the roster Anthony Davis. Giannis is 4 and 2 to the under 30.5 in his last 6 games vs AD. Go Giannis 🔥🔥🔥
Optional Super Action
All results counted in final performance statistics.
Westbrook x Giannis Combo SGM
Stake: 0.5 Units
Minimum Acceptable Odds: $55
Best Bookmaker: Bet365.
Other Bookmakers: Most Books.
My Thoughts:
Westbrook has 3 triple doubles this year all without LeBron James playing. Giannis has none but has gone very close on a couple of occasions this year and has posted 7 triple doubles over the last 2 seasons. Also in 3 matchups last season Russ and Giannis had 4 triple doubles between them including a game where they hit them simultaneously. I don't know maybe they have a thing for each other. I see Giannis as around a 10% chance to triple double and Russ around 33% chance so the fact we're getting these odds is amazing.
Go Russ, go Giannis 🔥🔥🔥
2nd Westbrook x Giannis Combo SGM
Stake: 0.5 Units
Minimum Acceptable Odds: $80
Best Bookmaker: Sportsbet.
Other Bookmakers: None Preferred.
My Thoughts:
We can pretty much use the same thoughts as above for this one, another great value snipe worth 0.5 units for us.
