Members tips for Tuesday 16 November.
Important Information
Bet Size & Bankroll.
My tips come with specific staking and bankroll advice, it’s your money and it is up to you how you bet it but I strongly suggest taking 5 minutes to check out the Using Your Membership Page to get familiar with the Staking and Bankroll Strategy before using the tips for the first time
Daily Expectations.
Important to note, last season we made 386.14 Units Profit, we profited on 104 of 191 betting days, winning 1 of every 5.9 bets placed over the full season. Making sure you have the bankroll to come back and bet as many days as possible is the best way to profit when betting longer odds Same Game Multis like this.
Thank you, Member!
Thanks very much for being a Member, remember you can reach out to me or the team and someone will always be there to answer your question big or small. - Tala
Today’s Bets: Part 3
The Fundamentals
Pascal Siam
Stake: 1 Unit
Minimum Acceptable Odds: $8.00
Best Bookmaker: Sportsbet.
Other Bookmakers: TAB, Ladbrokes & Pointsbet.
My Thoughts:
He's working his way into the season after shoulder surgery but looked pretty good last game out vs the Pistons hitting for 25-12-7. He's hit this line about 15% of games over the past 2 seasons. He was playing alot of small ball 5 against the Pistons. Without Fred VanVleet in the lineup the play was running through Spicy P and we're looking for more today. He's up against a Portland team which is bottom 10 in the league in defense and getting cooked by opposition Centers. It's quite an aggressive play considering his recent return from injury but he's enjoyed this matchup in the past and with the way the Raptors played with him last game out I'm happy to play it at these odds. Let's hope the spice is nice, go Spicy P🌶🌶🌶
Zach LaVine v LAL
Stake: 1.5 Units
Minimum Acceptable Odds: $5.00
Best Bookmaker: Sportsbet.
Other Bookmakers: None Preferred.
My Thoughts:
Zach has hit this line in 2 games this season. And about 29% of games over the past 2 seasons. The recent numbers are definitely the most important here given the improvement in the team. He faces a Lakers team who play a very high tempo and have given up alot of 3PM to Shooting Guards this season. Go Zach 🔥🔥🔥
Today’s Bets: Part 2
The Fundamentals
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander v MIA
Stake: 2 Units
Minimum Acceptable Odds: $5.00
Best Bookmaker: Sportsbet.
Other Bookmakers: None Preferred.
My Thoughts:
He's hit this line in 4 games this season and 42% of games over the past 2. Although he fell short yesterday SGA looked good scoring and passing his team-mates just couldn't quite knock down the open looks he created. Today he faces a Heat team that is very good defensively but also with key guys out which should make it a little easier for SGA to score and assist. In terms of the rebounding he's 10 and 2 to the under 7.5 mark. I like the value we're getting here for SGA against an under strength Miami Heat. Go SGA 🔥🔥🔥
Nikola Jokic v DAL
Stake: 1.5 Units
Minimum Acceptable Odds: $5.00
Best Bookmaker: Sportsbet.
Other Bookmakers: None Preferred.
My Thoughts:
Jokic is averaging 27.4ppg 13.6rpg 7.2 apg over his last 5 games, has hit this line twice and gone very close 1 other so a strong run of recent form. Over the past 2 seasons he's hit this line in about 20% of games the reigning MVP is a very talented player with an all around game. Today he faces a Mavericks team who he went 2 assists shy of hitting this line this season in only 25 minutes of action in their only matchup this year. The Mavericks are giving up plenty of points and rebounds to the Center position, my pick is that they will have to commit more defensive help to Jokic allowing him to use his passing skills as he has been in recent games. Go the Joker 🔥🔥🔥
Ja Morant v HOU
Stake: 2.5 Units
Minimum Acceptable Odds: $3.50
Best Bookmaker: Sportsbet.
Other Bookmakers: None Preferred.
My Thoughts:
Ja is averaging 26.2ppg 6.5rpg 7.4apg and has hit this line 6 games this season. He faces a Houston Rockets team which is ranked number 1 in the league in PACE. They have been ok defensively against the Point Guard position but below average on the whole and are giving up 111ppg to opposition teams. I like Ja here in a run and gun type scenario one danger could be the rebounds but he's 10 and 3 to the under 7.5. Let's go Ja 🔥🔥🔥
Today’s Bets:
The Fundamentals
Jerami Grant v SAC
Stake: 2.5 Units
Minimum Acceptable Odds: $3.50
Best Bookmaker: Sportsbet.
Other Bookmakers: TAB & Ladbrokes.
My Thoughts:
Jerami has hit this line in 4 games this season and 35% of games since last year. He's the best player on a non contending Pistons team he's averaging 18.9ppg 4.7rpg 2.6apg. Tomorrow he faces a Kings team which ranks bottom 10 in the league in defense and top 10 in the league in pace a nice combination, which gives Jerami a really strong chance to hit this line. Go Jerami 🔥🔥🔥
Spencer Dinwiddie v Pelicans
Stake: 2.5 Units
Minimum Acceptable Odds: $3.75
Best Bookmaker: Sportsbet.
Other Bookmakers: None Preferred.
My Thoughts:
Spencer is averaging 16.1ppg 5.5rpg 5.7apg and has hit this line in 1 game this season. He's hit this line in 37% of games he's played over the past 3 seasons. There are a couple of reasons I like him in this spot and think this play is over the odds. He faces the Pelicans who are ranked last in the NBA in Drtg and are giving up plenty of points and assists to the Point Guard position. In the games without Bradley Beal this year he's seen a bump in USG% and scored 34 points and 23 points respectively. One danger to this bet he is rebounding at career best levels. He's 8 and 3 to the under 6.5 mark however so that's the way we'll play it. Go Spencer 🔥🔥🔥
Jayson Tatum v CLE
Stake: 2.5 Units
Minimum Acceptable Odds: $3.00
Best Bookmaker: Sportsbet.
Other Bookmakers: TAB & Ladbrokes.
My Thoughts:
He's hit this line in 4 games this season and about 32% of games over the past 2 seasons. His numbers have been very good without Jaylen Brown. We were on him last game and the Cavaliers did a good job holding him to 21 points on 8/22 shooting. My take is that if he's still seeing that great opportunity he'll bounce back here today. Go Jayson 🔥🔥🔥
Domantas Sabonis v NYK
Stake: 3.5 Units
Minimum Acceptable Odds: $2.50
Best Bookmaker: Sportsbet.
Other Bookmakers: TAB, Pointsbet & Ladbrokes.
My Thoughts:
He's hit this line 7 games this season. He's hit this line in 49% of games over the past 3 seasons. A very consistent presence scoring and rebounding for the Pacers. Tomorrow he faces a Knicks team who are bottom 10 in the league this season in Drtg. The Knicks have been good defensively against opposition Power Forwards and poor against opposition Centers, Domantas splits his time between the 2 positions. Despite all that I like this play here especially at the odds we're receiving for such a consistent player. Go Domas 🔥🔥🔥
Malcolm Brogdon v NYK
Stake: 1.5 Units
Minimum Acceptable Odds: $4.50
Best Bookmaker: Ladbrokes.
Other Bookmakers: TAB & Sportsbet.
My Thoughts:
Brogdon has hit this line 4 games this season and 26% of games over the past 2 seasons. I like him in this spot against the Knicks tomorrow they're bottom 10 in the league in defense working Evan Fournier and Kemba Walker into their roster it remains to be seen whether they can hit their defensive straps as a unit like last year. Go Brogdon 🔥🔥🔥
Combo SGM: Brogdon x Sabonis
Stake: 1 Units
Minimum Acceptable Odds: $12.00
Best Bookmaker: Sportsbet.
Other Bookmakers: TAB & Ladbrokes.
My Thoughts:
I've noticed a trend where when Brogdon performs well so does Sabonis and vice versa. They've combined to hit this line in 10 games of 59 played together over the past 2 seasons. I like the odds we're getting here. Go Pacers 🔥🔥🔥
Clint Capela v ORL
Stake: 3 Units
Minimum Acceptable Odds: $2.50
Best Bookmaker: Sportsbet.
Other Bookmakers: None Preferred.
My Thoughts:
Clint is averaging 10.4ppg and 11.3rpg this season. He's hit this line in 6 games of 14 this year including 3 of his last 5 games. He's rebounding and scoring a little less than last year. Today he faces an Orlando Magic team who are giving up plenty of rebounds and points to opposition Centers. He hit this line vs the Magic in 2 games last season. The reason we're playing it this way team is he's under 14 points in 13 of 14 games this year he's had a reduced offensive role 8.4FGA down from 11FGA per game, but he's still doing a lot cleaning the glass. Don't get me wrong if he gets the boards it could go close with the points but we'll play the % and recent form here. Go Clint 🔥🔥🔥
Anthony Edwards v PHO
Stake: 2 Units
Minimum Acceptable Odds: $4.00
Best Bookmaker: Sportsbet.
Other Bookmakers: None Preferred.
My Thoughts:
Anthony is averaging 24.1ppg 6.3rpg 3.3apg and has hit this line in 6 games this season. He faces a Phoenix team who are ranked top 10 in Drtg and top 10 on Pace. Importantly he enjoyed the matchup last season scoring 11,24 and 42 respectively and likely sees the same matchups today. Go Anthony 🔥🔥🔥
Chris Paul v MIN
Stake: 2 Units
Minimum Acceptable Odds: $5.00
Best Bookmaker: Sportsbet.
Other Bookmakers: None Preferred.
My Thoughts:
The Point God, CP3 is averaging 14.2ppg 4.3rpg 10.4apg and has hit this line in 5 games this season. Today he faces a Timberwolves team that is top 10 in the league in PACE and about average defensively, but have been pretty good at preventing points to the Point Guard position. Go CP3 🔥🔥🔥
