Member’s Tips for Saturday 23 October.
Important Information
Bet Size & Bankroll.
My tips come with specific staking and bankroll advice, it’s your money and it is up to you how you bet it but I strongly suggest taking 5 minutes to check out the Using Your Membership Page to get familiar with the Staking and Bankroll Strategy before using the tips for the first time
Daily Expectations.
Important to note, last season we made 386.14 Units Profit, we profited on 104 of 191 betting days, winning 1 of every 5.9 bets placed over the full-season. Making sure you have bankroll to come back and bet as many days as possible is the best way to profit when betting longer odds Same Game Multis like this.
Thank you, Member!
Thanks very much for being a Member, remember you can reach out to myself or the team and someone will always be there to answer your question big or small. - Tala
Today’s Bets
The Fundamentals
Julius Randle v ORL
Stake: 1 Unit
Minimum Acceptable Odds: $7.00+
Best Bookmaker: Sportsbet.
Other Bookmakers: Ladbrokes $12 for Under 8.5 Rebounds, Over 6.5 Assists..
My Thoughts:
Here is some odds to get stuck into, Randle hits this line more than people think, it’s a play we love.
A lot of questions were answered on opening night, he still had the ball in his hands a lot down the stretch even with the additions of Fournier and Kemba Walker there was still plenty of Julius Randle iso. Kemba looks like a shell of the player he was in the 2019 Bubble, so we expect more of the same from Randle this year as last.
A classic Thibodeau coached team find the best player, play him big minutes, make sure he has the ball lots.
Collin Sexton v CHO
Stake: 1 Unit
Minimum Acceptable Odds: $7.50+
Best Bookmaker: Sportsbet.
Other Bookmakers: Ladbrokes.
My Thoughts:
Again with the odds we like to see, Collin has hit this line plenty.
An injury cloud hangs over Darius Garland. When his partner in the SexLand duo is out Collin serves up more dimes 5.3apg in 12 games without Garland last season compared to 4.1apg in 48 games with him.
A subtle difference but important to note he's hit this line with and without Garland before.
Collin Sexton v CHO
Stake: 2 Units.
Minimum Acceptable Odds: $2.00+
Best Bookmaker: Sportsbet.
Other Bookmakers: None Preferred.
My Thoughts:
No Bradley Beal today let's I think that'll mean a few more shots and opportunity for Kuz. He’s keen to get back out there and score again after taking a step back in LA.
Collin Sexton v CHO
Stake: 2 Units
Minimum Acceptable Odds: $4.50+
Best Bookmaker: Sportsbet.
Other Bookmakers: None Preferred.
My Thoughts:
I think Harris’ role is more consistent the other Nets players and we will be relying on him to produce how he has in the past few seasons again this year as he knocks down open shots, and doesn’t do a whole lot else.
Frewd VanVleet v BOS
Stake: 1.5 Units
Minimum Acceptable Odds: $7.50+
Best Bookmaker: Sportsbet.
Other Bookmakers: Ladbrokes..
My Thoughts:
Again a line we have seen FVV hit with or without Lowry, Fred is what he is, and the ins and outs short and long-term with the Raptors don’t chance what he brings each night too much.
He enjoys playing on the road scoring 25+ more often than at home. Let's see if he can bounce back from his below average shooting performance in the Raptors season opener and hit it for us today.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander v HOU
Stake: 4 Units
Minimum Acceptable Odds: $2.50+
Best Bookmaker: Sportsbet.
Other Bookmakers: None Preferred.
My Thoughts:
I had a good watch of SGA in their opener against the Jazz, he still has the ball all the time. Still has an amazing first step and ability to get into the paint.
Playing against a very lacklustre Rockets defense, I’m glad we could get this line today at this price.
Zach LaVine v NOP
Stake: 2 Units
Minimum Acceptable Odds: $4.5+
Best Bookmaker: Sportsbet.
Other Bookmakers: Ladbrokes..
My Thoughts:
Zach lit up the Pelicans twice last year, we had some questions about if he would need to spread the playmaking load this year.. The first game of the season Zach ran alot of pick and roll with Vucevic in the first half and got plenty of looks in isolation in the second half.
One thing that might hold us back here he only attempted 5 3PA in the first game of the season. Although he is a career .384 3P% so a very good shooter at decent volume. Something to keep an eye moving forward will be his 3PA.
Nikola Jokic v SAS
Stake: 2 Units
Minimum Acceptable Odds: $7.50+
Best Bookmaker: Pointsbet.
Other Bookmakers: Sportsbet.
My Thoughts:
He's hit this line with and without Jamal Murray in the lineup for the Nuggets.
Now first off Jokic is a phenomenal scoring threat. Great shooting touch, 3 point range. Size, strength, all the moves and ability to finish around the rim, hook shots, floaters, mid range. All of it.
So you ask why bet the under?
Well.... Jokic is an unselfish team first player on offense and if one of his team mates has a better look he can find them on time on target. His passing skills, awareness and sense of timing are very unique. He's 7 foot tall and can see over the defense, read the play quickly and get the ball where it needs to go. That's why I'm happy to bet on the reigning MVP to hit this line for us.
He has form against a similar Spurs defensive system, even more so now Aldridge is gone.. The game against the Spurs where he dropped 35 was with Lamarcus Aldridge defending, beauty.
Let's go Joker, find your guys put on a beautiful passing show for us.
De’Aaron Fox
Stake: 1.5 Units
Minimum Acceptable Odds: $5.00+
Best Bookmaker: Sportsbet.
Other Bookmakers: None Preferred.
My Thoughts:
Fox likes this stat line a lot, last year he hit it, 2 days ago he hit it. He’s a young player rated as the fastest in the league by GMs, let's see if he can put that speed to good use and torch the Jazz. In their 1 matchup last season he put up 30.
Anthony Davis v PHX
Stake: 2 Units
Minimum Acceptable Odds: $5.00+
Best Bookmaker: Sportsbet.
Other Bookmakers: None Preferred.
My Thoughts:
He looked in good condition in the season opener. This line has been AD at the Lakers to a tee, and it’s a line he hit in most of his games against the Suns last year.
