Footy Best Bets: AFL R4 & NRL R5
AFL
Thursday 08/04/2021
2 Units Blakey AGK. Neds/Lads Take down to $2.60. Note do not take the $2 at Sportsbet.
Friday 09/04/2021
2 Units Richmond line. Take down to +6.5, Ladbrokes/Neds only.
Saturday 10/04/2021
Statistical factors.
Macrae has hit 40+ disposals the last 3/4 games against Brisbane, including 40 in shortened quarters last season
He averages 33 disposals over his career (10 games) against Brisbane, the best of any team
Averages 36 disposals at Mars Stadium
Context.
Macrae has started the season as expected with 35, 41 and 36 disposals through 3 games. He comes up against the Lions, which are his bunny team, for piling on the touches. Last season Macrae collected 40 in a shortened game. He has a high of 47 disposals against them, and Brisbane rarely tag, and if they do, it will be the Bont that will cop the tag and not Macrae who will have free reign to do as he likes this afternoon.
Bet Details.
2 unit, Takedown to 5.50, best odds Bet 365
1.5 Unit. Take down for $4, best odds lads/neds & Bet365
2.5 Unit take down to 2.45. Note: This market is known as a tribet at most bookmakers.
Sunday 11/04/2021
2.5 unit take down to 2.35. Best odds at time of posting bet 365.
1.5 Unit take down to 3.75. Can also take 174.5-173.5 at other bookmakers if prices match. Best odds at time of posting Sportsbet.
Statistical factors.
Hawthorn have won the last 6/7 games against Fremantle
3 of those games they have won over in Perth
The only game they have lost in those seven games was in shortened quarters last season
Context.
Both teams battling at one win and two losses, but Hawthorn showed some serious grit against a finals bound Geelong side last week. In contrast, Fremantle got a bit of a touch up against the blues. Fremantle’s defence is in all sorts without a couple of key defenders, and considerable marking forward targets are hurting them, as are crumbing forwards like Luke Bruest. He has kicked multiple goals in 11 games against Fremantle. The Dockers are a different side in Perth, but I think this game should be closer to 1.90 each way, and Hawthorn is the value here.
Bet Details.
1.5 Unit take down to 2.55. Best odds at the time of posting Lads/Neds..
NRL
Thursday 08/04/2021
2 Units on the Under 43.5 here, $1.91 at bet 365 and $1.90 everywhere else.
Friday 09/04/2021
2 Units on the Warriors line. $2 at Ladbrokes, take $1.90 or better elsewhere.
UPDATE- This bet is now -6.5 for $2.00 at Ladbrokes.
We have a great value play on the over here. This is a game that traditionally has a lot of points scored and were prepared to take the public on with the enhanced odds. Ladbrokes has the $2.00 line and the next best is Topsport who have an Over 36.5 at $1.90 2 Units here.
Saturday 10/04/2021
There is a lot of misplaced hype in the Titans this season and they are yet to really show anything special. (Wins over the Broncos and Cowboys are more a formality this season). The Knights have been unlucky with injuries but still would have covered this line in both of their losses. 2 Units. $1.91 at Bet365, take $1.90 elsewhere.
To Say Josh Addo-Carr is due could be a great understatement, and it’s not for lack of trying. The Fox has been very unlucky this season to not have any more than one try and he came close to a few last week. Addo-Carr loves playing against the Bulldogs and has bagged a double in his last three games straight. The best odds are at Lads/Neds but take $3.00 or more anywhere else. 1 Unit.
The Roosters proved last week they can survive a few injuries. Sydney has covered this line in every game they have won this season and have covered it the last four times these two teams have met. Bet365 currently has the best odds but you can take this down to $1.90. This is also good to take if the line changes to -9.5 with odds of $1.95 or better. 2 Units.
Bonus Bet; 0.5 Units. Tedesco has been in terrific try-scoring form this season, scoring in every match he has played in. Not only has Teddy scored in every game he has gone 4/4 scoring the Roosters first try. This bet is still over the odds even with his terrific form this season. The best odds are at Lads/Neds, take over $5.0 if looking elsewhere.
Sunday 11/04/2021
Kyle Feldt has a terrific scoring record against the Tigers with 7 tries in 6 career games. Not only this but Feldt has crossed the line 5 times in his last 3 outings vs them. Feldt has missed the last few weeks, but that has been due to suspension as opposed to injury, so wont affect his try scoring ability. The Tigers have already conceded 5 tries to right wingers this season. Were getting overs at $2.40 on Lads/Neds, but take $2.20 or more anywhere else. 1.5 Units
St George games have had more points in them than expected this season, but this will come to a screeching halt in their first match vs a top 4 defence. The Eels have a very stout defence and have gone under this line in 3 out of 4 of their games this season. The lone outlier was a game that historically goes over, (my favourite bet last week). The Dragons got lucky last week with both opposition injuries and a few charge down tries. They won’t get that same luck this week and will struggle to get the points on the board. 3 of the last 4 matches between these two sides have gone well under this total. Stick to the $1.90 line (or better if you have a boost) which is available at most books. 2 Units
