Caveman’s NBA Totals Sunday 11th April
Here we are, team, and a big welcome to our new members!! After a terrific day yesterday where we extracted a very healthy profit, were back with another exciting card. We only have the 2 plays today as I’ve hunted out the best 💎💎. There is an exciting write up below regarding my favourite game of the day, which I have slightly increased the staking on as well. For our new members, Sportsbet and Palmerbet always hold the best odds. If you are using a different book make sure to stay inside the odds to take. Cheers, Caveman!!
Sacramento Kings @ Utah Jazz
Bet; Alternate Total Points Under 215.5
Breakdown
The Kings and Jazz are trending towards the ‘Under’ lately; since the All-Star Break, both teams going ‘Under’ approximately two-thirds of games. The Kings have gone ‘Under 215.5’ in 3/7 games in recent history the last two weeks, and the Jazz has gone ‘Under 215.5’ in 2/8 games. Last season, 2/3 games between these teams went under this total, with very similar starting 5's that will be lining up today.
The Jazz has a dominating defence and owns the third-best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA. The Kings have also been declining in 3pt shooting % recently, meaning less chance of them taking these shots. Less outside shots should force them into the paint to collide with the leagues’ best 2pt shooting defence.
The odds offer of $5.20 is well above our calculated breakeven odds. We have calculated a probability rate in the range of 25 to 33 % for this match, which gives us a very positive Expected Value (EV).
