Members tips for Saturday 4 December.
Important Information
Bet Size & Bankroll.
My tips come with specific staking and bankroll advice, it’s your money and it is up to you how you bet it but I strongly suggest taking 5 minutes to check out the Using Your Membership Page to get familiar with the Staking and Bankroll Strategy before using the tips for the first time
Daily Expectations.
Important to note, last season we made 386.14 Units Profit, we profited on 104 of 191 betting days, winning 1 of every 5.9 bets placed over the full season. Making sure you have the bankroll to come back and bet as many days as possible is the best way to profit when betting longer odds Same Game Multis like this.
Thank you, Member!
Thanks very much for being a Member, remember you can reach out to me or the team and someone will always be there to answer your question big or small. - Tala
Today’s Bets
The Fundamentals
Domantas Sabonis v MIA
Stake: 3 Unit
Minimum Acceptable Odds: $2.50
Best Bookmaker: Sportsbet.
Other Bookmakers: None Preferred.
My Thoughts:
Domantas is averaging 17.5ppg 11.9rpg 4apg. He's hit this line in 11 games this season including 1 in the last 5. Domantas has hit this line in about 47% of game over the past 2 seasons including 2 of 4 vs the Heat. Miami are ranked 27th in Pace, so play a slow game with less possessions and shots in general. They're also playing without Bam Adebayo 2nd team all defense that should make things easier on Domas. We didn't play the over 11 as the value just wasn't there. Playing this range gives us about the same chance to hit considering the Heats pace, but also gives us an extra board on the bottom incase Domas ends with 10. Go Domas 🔥🔥🔥
Jarrett Allen v WAS
Stake: 3 Unit
Minimum Acceptable Odds: $2.50
Best Bookmaker: Sportsbet.
Other Bookmakers: None Preferred.
My Thoughts:
Jarrett is averaging 16.3ppg 11.3rpg he's hit this line in 9 games this season including 5 of his last 5. Jarrett is very capable of this line and today he faces a Washington team that has been decent defensively but is giving up plenty of points and rebounds to Centers. Go Jarrett 🔥🔥🔥
Kevin Durant v MIN
Stake: 2 Units
Minimum Acceptable Odds: $3.50
Best Bookmaker: Sportsbet.
Other Bookmakers: Most Books.
My Thoughts:
KD is averaging 28.6ppg 7.5rpg 5.6apg. He's hit this line in 7 games this season. Today up against a Timberwolves team that are ranked 9th in Drtg, but will be without a few of their better defenders due to injury and illness. Go KD 🔥🔥🔥
Joel Embiid v ATL
Stake: 2.5 Units
Minimum Acceptable Odds: $3.00
Best Bookmaker: Sportsbet.
Other Bookmakers: Most Books.
My Thoughts:
Joel is averaging 22ppg 10.9rpg 4.2apg. He's hit this line in 3 games this season and about 25% of games since last season. Tobias Harris is sick and missed shootaround. It should mean an even greater workload for Embiid. In 8 games without Harris last season Embiid averaged 33ppg 13.4rpg 4.1apg. Massive numbers. Even considering his form this year I think we're getting great value for the big man here considering the absence of the teams second leading player.
The Hawks defense is ranked 24th in the NBA in Drtg. They're defending centers well but I like Joel in this spot. Go Joel 🔥🔥🔥
Christian Wood v ORL
Stake: 1 Units
Minimum Acceptable Odds: $5.00
Best Bookmaker: Sportsbet.
Other Bookmakers: None Preferred.
My Thoughts:
Christian is averaging 16ppg 11.2rpg 2.2apg. He's hit this line in 4 games this season and about 18% of games he's played for the Rockets overall. He's listed as probable today. If he's good to go I think he has a great chance to hit this line against the Magic today who are ranked 25th in Drtg and giving up plenty of points and rebounds to opposing Centers and Power Forwards. Go Christian 🔥🔥🔥
Jonas Valanciunas v DAL
Stake: 3 Units
Minimum Acceptable Odds: $2.50
Best Bookmaker: Sportsbet.
Other Bookmakers: None Preferred.
My Thoughts:
JV has his this line in 13 games this season. Including 1 game already against the Mavericks. Coming off a down game against the Mavericks which was a blowout. The Mavs shot 68.7% from the field in that game. Looking for them to shoot closer to their season average today and there should be more than 26 Dboards available. Go JV 🔥🔥🔥
Dennis Schroder & Marcus Smart Combo SGM v UTA
Stake: 3 Units
Minimum Acceptable Odds: $2.25
Best Bookmaker: TAB.
Other Bookmakers: Most Books.
My Thoughts:
Jaylen Brown is listed as Out, he has missed 9 games this season, this Schroder & Smart Combo has hit this line in 6 of those 9 games.
We have a small sample but overwhelming suggestion that these 2 players stats change without Brown, however, Utah also has good defense against these stats, so, we play with 3 units, if this was against another team we may even go more units.
Optional Super Action
All Results Count Towards Final Statistics
Domantas Sabonis & Jonas Valanciunas Combo SGM.
Stake: 1 Unit
Minimum Acceptable Odds: $10.00
Best Bookmaker: Sportsbet.
Other Bookmakers: None Preferred.
My Thoughts:
Both of the big fellas face good matchups today. I think both of these bets are combined about a 15% chance to hit. We're getting good odds here at $17. Go JV and Domas 🇱🇹🇱🇹🇱🇹
